Indonesia surpasses 7 World Cup 2026 teams in squad value: Naturalization success or speculative bubble?

On the eve of the FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026, a startling figure has shaken Southeast Asian football: the Indonesian national team's total squad value has reached €36.65 million, surpassing 7 teams that have qualified for the 2026 World Cup, including Iran (€32.5M), New Zealand (€35.3M), and Panama (€34.5M). This result, based on Transfermarkt rankings published in late March 2026, reflects Indonesia's aggressive naturalization strategy pursued in recent years. Context: Since appointing coach John Herdman in 2026, Indonesia has accelerated the recruitment of European-origin players with Indonesian ancestry, notably center-back Jay Idzes (valued at €14M, playing in Serie A), Kevin Diks (a right-back born in the Netherlands, valued at €7.5M), and many others from top European leagues. As a result, the squad value has skyrocketed, far surpassing traditional rival Vietnam (approximately €7M) and even overshadowing several World Cup-bound teams. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals a less rosy picture. Jay Idzes accounts for 38% of the total squad value, creating an excessive dependence on a single player. Meanwhile, several other naturalized players have limited international experience, and crucially: squad value is not a proxy for on-pitch success. In reality, Indonesia has not yet qualified for the World Cup and is still in the qualifying rounds. Their recent victory over the Philippines in the second qualifying round is insufficient to assert strength. The contrarian view: Many Indonesian fans are highly confident, believing that having a squad value comparable to World Cup teams means a real chance. But the reality is that Transfermarkt is only a reference valuation model, not actual transfer fees. Moreover, reliance on naturalized players can create dressing-room imbalance: Coach John Herdman has omitted former captain Rizky Ridho from the squad, despite him being a spiritual leader. This carries a risk of division between local and naturalized players. If Indonesia fails to advance past the ASEAN Cup group stage or is eliminated early, a backlash could emerge against the current policy. Takeaway: The €36.65 million squad value is a positive signal in terms of media and commercial appeal, but it does not guarantee performance. The FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026 will be the real test for Indonesia. If they fail, they will face the question: is the naturalization path sustainable or just a speculative bubble?